COVID-19 pandemic interventions reshaped the global dispersal of seasonal influenza viruses.

Chen Z, Tsui JL-H, Gutierrez B, Busch Moreno S, du Plessis L, Deng X, Cai J, Bajaj S, Suchard MA, Pybus OG, Lemey P, Kraemer MUG
,
et al

The global dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses inform the design of surveillance, intervention, and vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a singular opportunity to evaluate how influenza circulation worldwide was perturbed by human behavioral changes. We combine molecular, epidemiological, and international travel data and find that the pandemic's onset led to a shift in the intensity and structure of international influenza lineage movement. During the pandemic, South Asia played an important role as a phylogenetic trunk location of influenza A viruses, whereas West Asia maintained the circulation of influenza B/Victoria. We explore drivers of influenza lineage dynamics across the pandemic period and reasons for the possible extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage. After a period of 3 years, the intensity of among-region influenza lineage movements returned to pre-pandemic levels, with the exception of B/Yamagata, after the recovery of global air traffic, highlighting the robustness of global lineage dispersal patterns to substantial perturbation.

Keywords:

Humans

,

Influenza A virus

,

Influenza B virus

,

Seasons

,

Phylogeny

,

Travel

,

Asia

,

Influenza, Human

,

Pandemics

,

COVID-19

,

SARS-CoV-2