Researchers from across the University of Oxford were on the ground at COP30 in Belém, taking part in side events, presenting new research, and working with partners to support the negotiations and inform the wider political process.
Dr Aline Soterroni (of our Nature-based Solutions Initiative, also Oxford Net Zero), said that COP30 advanced without strong language on halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, and that meaningful progress will depend on action beyond the COP process grounded in ethics, Indigenous rights, protection of carbon sinks, and collaborative mechanisms:
'As a Brazilian scientist working on climate–nature linkages, it is disappointing to see a ‘forest COP’ in the Amazon advance without strong language on halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.
'The science is unequivocal: in tropical countries like Brazil, halting deforestation is essential for achieving net-zero emissions. Globally, our terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks must be protected and restored; otherwise, reaching global net zero will be put at serious risk. Beyond carbon, safeguarding forest ecosystems such as the Amazon — that is approaching a critical tipping point — is vital for maintaining key ecosystem services, including water regulation, which supports food production and renewable energy security.
'It is also a moral and ethical imperative. Deforestation destroys biodiversity, undermines ecosystem resilience, and harms local communities and Indigenous peoples, who have contributed the least to these crises yet bear their impacts most acutely.
'Additionally, it’s impossible to reach consensus when some countries are deliberately blocking progress. That’s why I hope the global discussion on roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and end deforestation evolves beyond the COP process. Positive mechanisms like the TFFF are already underway, and I truly hope the real multirão for collective implementation continues to grow bringing together multiple actors and relying on the best available science.'
Nathalie Seddon (of our Nature-based Solutions Initiative, also Agile Initiative and Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery) said that while Brazil has made fragile but important progress in reducing deforestation and recognising Indigenous territories, COP30 still lacks a concrete, time-bound Forest Roadmap and a stronger mandate to align climate and biodiversity action, leaving this ‘forest COP’ at risk of failing its defining test:
'Brazil has started to bend the curve on deforestation: official figures show Amazon deforestation is now around half its 2022 level and at its lowest in more than a decade, and here at COP30 the government has just fully recognised four Indigenous territories and moved to demarcate over twenty more. But this progress is fragile and still the exception, not the rule – global forest loss remains off track for the promise to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, especially as fires and industrial agriculture continue to drive loss.
'We’ll be closer to truly stopping deforestation when measures like strong enforcement, secure Indigenous land rights, and direct finance for community-led conservation become the global norm. And when pressures from industrial animal agriculture fall as diets change.
'One of my main takeaways from this COP in Belém is that the political mandate is there, but the plan is not.
'President Lula has called for a roadmap on forests; Indigenous Peoples and local communities are here in historic numbers, asserting their rights and their critical role as forest protectors; and scientists are warning that parts of the Amazon are approaching critical tipping points.
'Yet the draft outcome still lacks a concrete, time-bound Forest Roadmap, and attempts to strengthen cooperation across the Rio Conventions on climate, biodiversity and land have been markedly diluted. For a COP hosted in the heart of the Amazon, in the most biodiverse country on Earth, that is deeply worrying. COP30 must still deliver an actionable roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, grounded in rights and direct finance for those who safeguard the forest, and a clearer mandate to align climate and biodiversity action; without that, this ‘forest COP’ will have failed its defining test.'
To read the full expert comment, visit the University of Oxford website: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11-25-expert-comment-reflections-cop30-bel-m
